Polls are just that. Polls. They are not election results, and it’s still 8+ months to election day.
If they were election results, Clinton beats Trump and loses to Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich.
Head-to-head in an “election” of the primary leaders, Clinton wins.
On the other side of the Democratic ticket, Sanders beats Trump, Cruz, and Kasich, and ties with Rubio.
“If you’re trying to figure out who will win the nomination, national primary polls can lead you astray. You’re better off looking at the next few states to vote, such as those covered by our primary forecasts. But national polls play a big role in media coverage, and taking a weighted average of them is more informative than looking at just one or two.”
Their analysis of polling data shows Trump now at 35.5% and Clinton at 50.3%. His lead over Cruz has been pretty consistent even while both rise in the polls. Sanders continues to narrow the gap with Clinton. He’s now at 38.6%.
RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEitgh analyze big data sets. They don’t look at single polls or sources and then make proclamations.
That should tell us a lot, not the least of which is that it’s not hard to find a poll with a data set that supports a particular viewpoint or opinion.
Case in point: the Fox News poll in the above graphic from the week ending 2/17 that shows Clinton beating Trump by 5%.
Whooda thunk it?
We junkies and zealots can argue back and forth all day, and I have no doubt that we will, and well past November.
For now, I have to get ready to leave for today’s march in Pittsburgh in support of Bernie Sanders. Hope to see you there.