This got me thinking today.
“Do you really think independents give a damn about the party?”
That’s an interesting question on a couple of levels. The one I’ll address here is how the question can easily be turned around.
Do you really think Democratic or Republican apparatchiks
give a damn about Independents?
I know a lot is made of the idea that fewer and fewer people admit to being a member or supporter of either party, but the parties both know whom they can count on to actually show up to vote.
You know who it hasn’t been? Independents.
Only 57.5% of eligible voters cast a vote in 2012. 93 million eligible voters didn’t vote in the last presidential election.
Even in 2008 – hailed as the highest turnout in 40 years – and arguably one of the most historically important elections in this country’s history, the turnout was a pathetic 61.6%.
Remember when you were in school? That would be a failing grade; maybe a D- if you were lucky.
So, if 42% of Americans claim to be Independent, why aren’t voter turnout numbers much, much higher? The best explanation I can come up with is that it’s the party loyalists who can be counted on to show up in greater numbers. The data seem to back that up.
It’s “the base” the parties play to, not the Independent voter. This is also why I remain mystified as to why Sanders supporters get so pissed off about how the DNC isn’t doing more to help Sanders. Why should they? Like me, he’s a “Democrat of convenience.” Makes me wonder what the Vegas odds are that he switches back to Independent after the election.
Back to the numbers.
Of the voters who did show up in 2012, CNN’s “Vote by Party ID” data shows that 38% said they were Democrats, 32% said they were Republicans, and 29% claimed to be Independent. (Where’s the rest of the 42% of Independents?)
And, how did those 29% who said they were Independents actually vote?
45% to Obama
50% to Romney
Now, let’s assume those percentages don’t change for 2016. Yes, I know we all want to believe that Americans are much more engaged this time, but I’ll wait to see it before I believe it. In fact, I think there’s a hell of a case to be made that turnout will be historically low precisely because the choice will be between Clinton and Trump, two candidates with historically high unfavorables.
But back to this exercise and the assumption.
Let’s go ahead and double the 5% of Independents who voted Other in 2012 to 10% for the 2016 election. 10% of the 29% percent who claimed to be Independents and who didn’t vote for one of the 2 parties last time would be 2.9% of the total votes cast.
Could Bernie get more than 3% of the total popular vote running at this point as a write-in or as an Independent? Probably, but let’s not ignore some important facts.
- 7 states don’t allow write-ins and 35 states require paperwork to be filed to be a write-in
- The process is even more onerous for getting on each state’s ballot as an Independent
- The deadline for being on the Texas ballot as an Independent and having any kind of shot at their second-highest 38 Electoral College votes was on May 9th
So, you write off Texas because it will take The Second Coming of Christ before Texans vote for a Democrat, and you write off the 7 states that don’t allow write-ins if you want to go that route, and you’re left with an awfully big and steep uphill climb.
Then, there’s this.
Bernie has already gone on record as saying he will support Hillary if she wins the nomination.
All that being said, yes, I think Bernie could capture more than 3% of the popular vote, but then what? Well, then he runs squarely into the Electoral College.
I’m old enough to have voted for Ross Perot. Twice. He got 18.9% of the popular vote in 1992, more than any other third-party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 (27.4%) and Millard Fillmore in 1856 (21.5%). They all lost. Big.
Let’s think about Perot and his almost 20% as the most obvious modern corollary to what Bernie might be able to do. Think about this: Perot got almost 1 in 5 votes, but do you know how many Electoral College votes Ross got with almost 1 in 5 popular votes?
None. Zero. Nada. Zilch.
(Fillmore got 8 out of 296, and Roosevelt got 88 out of 531.)
In 1980, when I was voting for John Anderson along with the other 6.6% of the popular voters, he, too got zero Electoral College votes. The sitting president, Jimmy Carter, got 41% of the popular vote, and he lost 489 to 49 in Electoral College votes to Reagan.
Yes, anything is possible, I suppose. It’s not over until it’s over, and all of that.
Yes, I’m going to remain hopeful that maybe *THIS TIME AROUND* Independents actually will make a difference, but after more than 3 decades as an eligible voter, I’m just going to admit that I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m going to just go ahead and ask for some forgiveness now if I seem to keep coming off as sounding skeptical that, come November, we will have anything other than a Clinton versus Trump election.
What I really, REALLY hope to see is that Sanders and my fellow supporters of his don’t squander everything that has been gained this election cycle. There’s something happening here, and we have to be careful that we’re not the ones who kill The Revolution just as it’s getting started.
We can keep this going. We can work together to take back the Senate and the House. We can take back governors’ mansions and state capitols and municipalities and school boards, but we can only be successful so long as we don’t figuratively kill each other off and leave the Democratic landscape a scorched Earth.
For my money, everything gets a lot harder with Trump in the Oval Office. Not to put too fine a point on it, this is on you Bernie-or-Buster types more than anyone. Sorry, but it’s just plain ridiculous to think taking three steps backwards is the way to someday progress forward. Those three steps back, BTW, come from having to endure having all three federal branches controlled by the GOP.
Call it fear-mongering. Call it cowardice or capitulation to The System. Call me a Hillary shill or a Shillary troll or whatever. I’ve heard at all already. It doesn’t matter, and I don’t care.
You may feel like this is telling you how to vote. Maybe it is, but I think this needs to be said to all my fellow Sanders supporters, and especially to the Bernie-or-Busters:
Your vote can make a statement, or it can make a difference.